The March 10 deadline set by the Maldives for India to pull out the first group of Indian military personnel from the archipelago is approaching.
India’s Ministry of External Affairs said the military personnel, who are mostly engaged in rescue and relief in the Maldives, will be replaced with “competent Indian technical personnel”.
Why is Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu so insistent on Indian personnel leaving the archipelago when their strength isn’t even 100?
There are two deadlines, March 10 and May 10, by which the Maldives wants all Indian personnel to be withdrawn from its territories.
On Tuesday, Muizzi stepped up his anti-India rhetoric and reiterated the May 10 deadline.
“There will be no Indian troops in the country come May 10. Not in uniform and not in civilian clothing. The Indian military will not be residing in this country in any form of clothing. I state this with confidence,” Muizzu said.
That there is a strain in the India-Maldives ties is evident. A lot has happened in recent weeks.
External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar on Monday took a veiled swipe at Muizzu, saying “Big bullies don’t provide $4.5 billion aid”.
Even as it presses India on its military personnel, the Maldives on Tuesday signed two military agreements with China. Though details of the pacts aren’t known, it is reported that under the terms of one of the agreements, China has pledged to provide military assistance to the Maldives at no cost.
This was even as the Indian Navy announced the opening of a new naval base in Minicoy, Lakshadweep’s southernmost island. The new base, opening March 6, will act as an “independent naval unit”. It is just 130 km from the Maldives.
The Maldives is strategically important for the Indo-Pacific region, and it has seen China vying to edge out India, which has aided Maldivians for decades.
MUIZZU LIED ABOUT NUMBER OF INDIAN PERSONNEL IN MALDIVES
The Maldivians said that both sides agreed that India would “replace the military personnel on one of the three aviation platforms by March 10, and would complete replacing military personnel on the other two platforms by May 10,” according to a Maldivian Defence Ministry statement from late February.
The withdrawal of “thousands of Indian troops” was a campaign promise of the pro-China Muizzu.
There aren’t thousands of Indian troops in the Maldives. They number just around 80.
However, Muizzu projected it as India militarily subjugating a sovereign country.
“It is necessary to state this in the unfortunate ongoing spat between India and the Maldives after the election of President Muizzu, who had demanded the withdrawal of all Indian military personnel to restore Maldives’ sovereignty,” Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd) told IndiaToday.In.
The ‘India-Out Campaign’ helped President Muizzu to defeat India-friendly Ibrahim Solih in 2023.
“The ousting of Indian military personnel from the Maldives was portrayed as a violation of sovereignty, despite a bilateral agreement on the same being in place. The Indian military personnel are mostly crews and technicians managing one Dornier aircraft and two helicopters gifted by India,” Smruti S Pattanaik of the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) told IndiaToday.In.
“The Indian military has had its presence in the Maldives since 2010 and India has also gifted a Dornier aircraft and two Dhruv helicopters to the island nation for medical evacuation, humanitarian assistance and security,” Indrani Bagchi, CEO of Ananta Aspen Centre and foreign policy analyst, told IndiaToday.In.
In fact, as recently as May 2023, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh handed over a Fast Patrol Vessel and a Landing Craft Assault ship to the Maldives National Defence Forces (MNDF).
That Muizzi had exaggerated the number of Indian military personnel present in the Maldives was recently called out by former Maldivian foreign minister Abdulla Shahid. He said there were no armed foreign troops in the Maldives.
“100 days in, it’s clear: President Muizzu’s claims of ‘thousands of Indian military personnel’ were just another in a string of lies. The current administration’s inability to provide specific numbers speaks volumes. There are no armed foreign soldiers stationed in the country. Transparency matters and the truth must prevail,” Shahid said on February 26.
INDIAN PERSONNEL IN MALDIVES HELP IN RESCUE OPERATIONS
The stationed Indian personnel mostly carried out medical evacuations, air rescue operations and surveillance, contrary to what Muizzu made his fellow citizens believe.
“Receiving nations do not become colonies of the providers simply because of having foreign soldiers, sailors or airmen”, said Lt Gen Ata Hasnain (Retd), who is a former General Officer Commanding 15 Corps (Srinagar), 21 Corps.
India helps Maldivians with the required resources for everyday living, he added.
“On one occasion, even drinking water had to be expeditiously provided by ship when all other systems collapsed,” Lt Gen Ata Hasnain (Retd) recollected.
India’s cooperation and prioritised assistance to the Maldives in medicine, infrastructure, energy and economic domains have been central to bilateral relations.
Not to forget the Indian Army’s timely help in thwarting the 1998 coup attempt in the Maldives. India sent troops to help then-President Abdul Gayoom fight the coup attempt.
It is almost three decades since the coup and Maldivian President Muizzu has set a deadline for the handful of Indian military personnel to leave the archipelago.
Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd) calls the step “insufficiently explained and perhaps even insufficiently analysed by media and international observers”.
NATIONALISM BEHIND MUIZZU’S ‘COMPULSIONS’
“Maldives under Muizzu sees this as an Indian military presence. Under Muizzu, who is an Islamist and openly China-leaning politician, Maldives sees this as an unacceptable dependence on India. He has won on a campaign of getting India out [of the Maldives],” says foreign policy analyst Indrani Bagchi.
Bagchi calls Muizzu’s decision “very unfortunate” as the Maldives is “one of India’s closest neighbours and is strategically important”.
The Maldivian President Muizzu’s rise to power after promising an India-Out campaign, Smruti S Pattanaik of MP-IDSA said, was “closely tied to the invoking of nationalism, which has even been incorporated into the school curriculum”.
On what prompted the Maldives to take the “unnecessary step”, Lt Gen Ata Hasnain (Retd), said, “Muizzu may have an axe to grind with India and Indian leaders. He may have been goaded or inspired by India’s adversaries to cock a snook at India as a demonstration of unwillingness”.
“It’s one of those numerous attempts by China to create disaffection against India among its neighbours,” he added.
India, which sees the Indian Ocean region as its strategic backyard, has seen the Maldives and Sri Lanka as its strategic partners for the safety and security of the Sea Lanes of Communication (SLoC).
The Chinese growth story is a result of its prolonged dependence on SLoCs in the Northern Indian Ocean for decades, which is “based on the inward flow of energy from the Middle East and the outflow of manufactured goods in hundreds of containers to India, Middle East, Africa and Europe”, according to Lt Gen Ata Hasnain (Retd).
Therefore, the Chinese interference in the region, with a bunch of Belt and Road Initiatives (BRI) projects in Sri Lanka and the Maldives. It is the notorious ‘String of Pearls’, that is seemingly encompassing the Indian Ocean region.
“China obviously senses the Indian Ocean region as one of its prime vulnerabilities,” said Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd).
However, the China factor, alone, is not responsible for the stance of Muizzu and his predecessor before India-friendly Ibrahim Mohamed Solih, Abdulla Yameen.
“Maldives is an Islamic nation,” said Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (Retd).
Muizzu’s leadership in the Maldives coincides with growing concerns about Muslim radicalization. Muizzu’s policies may reflect an attempt to reshape ideological leverage, he explained.
Under Muizzu’s party predecessor, Abdulah Yameen, between 2013 and 2018, “the Maldives topped global per capita figures for fighters (200) going to Syria to join the Islamic State (IS)”, according to a Lory Institute’s 2022 report. It is an exaggerated campaign promise that Muizzu is trying to keep and cement his base in an Islamic country that is getting radicalised even further. Muizzu is banking on nationalism like most right-wing leaders of today.
