“Iran stands prepared to use weapons it has not previously deployed to address any potential escalation by Israel,” a spokesperson for Iran’s National Security said after Israel warned of retaliation following Tehran’s barrage of missile strikes towards Jerusalem.
While Iran has stopped short of revealing more about this “previously unused weaponry”, the nuclear question hangs heavy in the Middle East since tensions erupted after Israel reportedly attacked an Iranian consulate in Syria.
“After this weekend, the threat of a nuclear weapon being deployed from inside Iran toward Israel is a step closer to reality,” an analysis report by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) said.
Experts have said Iran is closer to nuclear weapons capability than at any time in the country’s history.
WHAT DO WE KNOW OF IRAN’S NUCLEAR PROGRAM?
Iran has always claimed it does not have nuclear weapons and also denies that it was attempting to use its civilian nuclear programme to become a nuclear armed state.
However, Israel has long accused Iran of clandestinely building a nuclear bomb. In fact, in the past two decades, Iran’s nuclear facilities have been key targets of Israel’s special operations.
The most notable being the assassination of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, regarded as the “father” of Iran’s nuclear weapons program, in 2021 using a modified machine gun attached to a robotic apparatus powered by artificial intelligence technology.
While Iran’s nuclear capabilities have remained shrouded in mystery, more so after the US pulled out of a 2015 deal, a report by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said Tehran was making highly enriched uranium at a faster rate than ever before.
Enriched uranium is used as fuel for nuclear power plants and nuclear reactors and is also used for nuclear weapons.
Under the 2015 deal with world powers and the European Union, Iran agreed to restrict its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief. However, the restraints fell through after then US President Donald Trump withdrew the country from the deal in 2018.
While the 2015 deal is technically still in effect as European countries continue to recognise it, an emboldened Iran has continued to increase its uranium fuel stocks.
Natanz, located in Iran’s central Isfahan province, hosts the country’s main uranium enrichment facility. Iran has another enrichment plant, Fordow, located deep underground in a factory built inside a mountain near the Great Salt Desert.
While both the sites are monitored by the IAEA to ensure against any secret effort by Iran to make nuclear bombs, there have been reports of the country barring inspectors from some sites. Surveillance cameras at some crucial sites have also reportedly been removed.
IRAN’S URANIUM STOCKPILE
In 2023, the global nuclear watchdog warned that Iran already had enough material to make three nuclear bombs.
As per the present scenario, Iran has the capability of making a crude nuclear device in as little as six months. However, it will take atleast two years to make a nuclear warhead deliverable by a missile, officials who monitor Iran’s nuclear facilities told The Washington Post.
The assertion is not completely unfounded as IAEA inspectors found Iran had enriched uranium particles to 83.7% purity, a massive jump from the 3.67% it was to maintain as part of the 2015 deal.
Uranium enriched to between 3 and 5 percent can be used to power civilian power stations. For making nuclear weapons, uranium must be enriched to 90 per cent. Thus, it means that within a short period, Iran can touch the 90 per cent weapons-grade threshold.
Calling the development concerning, IAEA chief Rafael Grossi recently said, “You may have heard high officials in Iran saying they have all the elements for a nuclear weapon lately.”
Last year, former US under-secretary of defence Colin Kahl told the Congress that Iran could make a nuclear weapon from the uranium stockpile in just 12 days.
The Washington-based Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) has said Iran had enough material for three nuclear weapons. “Iran would only need a couple of weeks to produce that weapons-grade material, but probably much longer – a year or more – to build an actual bomb it could deliver,” AP quoted Eric Brewer, the deputy vice president of NTI, as saying.
