Delhi NCR alone is expected to add 5200 beds in next five years, followed by Bengaluru – 3500, Haryana – 2700, Mumbai – 2300, Chennai – 2000, Kerala – 500 and rest – 13,750.
ICRA said metros are expected to remain focal points of additions, several players are also expanding/setting up presence in tier-2 and tier-3 cities/towns.
India’s current overall bed capacity under the private sector is around 11 – 11.5 lakh will be around 11.3 – 11.8 lakh by 2028, increasing by 2.7% annually.
ICRA’s sample set of companies are expected to add over 1,500 beds and 3,400 beds in FY24 and FY25. This cumulatively translates
to 15% of the existing capacity.
Around 55%-60% of the new beds are being set up in greenfield facilities while the balance capacity addition is expected to happen through brownfield investments and asset acquisition route.
ICRA said it maintains its stable outlook on the Indian hospital industry, supported by expectations of strong operating metrics translating to healthy revenue growth and robust margins for its sample set of companies that include all major hospital chains.
ICRA expects the aggregate occupancy for its sample set companies to remain healthy at 64-65% in FY24 compared 65.1% in FY23 backed by sustained healthy demand for healthcare services, continued market share gains for organised players and revival in medical tourism post the pandemic.
The average revenue per occupied bed (ARPOB) is expected to witness a healthy growth of 8-10% in FY24 aided by improving specialty and case mix, better payor mix with higher contribution of cash and insurance patients and annual price revisions by companies to offset cost inflation is supporting the ARPOB growth for the sample set.
Overall, ICRA estimates revenue growth at 12-14% in FY2024.
