Oil Prices Fall Back After A Brief Rally

August 15, 2020

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Saturday, August 15, 2020 /08:00
AM / by Tom Kool of Oilprice.com / Header Image Credit: Oilprice

Oil prices
have been trading in a relatively tight range for the last few weeks, and
despite the recent bullish momentum WTI hasn’t been able to break out.

Friday, August 14th, 2020

Another week and another snoozer for oil prices. WTI
and Brent remain in a narrow range, although their foothold in the $40s feels
more solid than it has in the past. EIA data this week showed another decent
stock decline, along with an uptick in gasoline demand.

IEA: Oil demand takes a hit. The International Energy Agency expects crude
oil demand this year to be 8.1 million bpd lower than it was in 2019, a
downward demand forecast revision of 140,000 bpd, the authority said in its
latest Oil Market Report. The agency cited the very weak aviation industry as a
main reason why demand could remain depressed.

Inventories to draw down at “record
speed.” In the fourth quarter, oil
inventories could draw down at “record speed,” according to SEB. “[T]he IEA
yesterday (13 August) projected a call-on-OPEC in Q4 2020 of 29.5m bl/day. If
this turns out to be correct and OPEC and OPEC+ both stick to their agreed
caps, then global inventories will decline by between 4m bl/day and 5.2m bl/day
in Q4 2020 – an inventory draw of between 370m bl and 480m barrels in a single
quarter, which cannot be far from a historical record,” SEB’s Bjarne Schieldrop
said in a statement. Related: Oilfield Service Companies Are Bailing On The Permian

U.S. seizes Iranian fuel ships. The U.S. filed a lawsuit in July against four ships carrying gasoline
from Iran to Venezuela. U.S. officials said the four
ships are en route to Houston, and the seizures should deter shipowners from
taking business in violation of U.S. sanctions.

China’s refinery runs hit record. China’s refinery processing surged by 12
percent in July month-on-month, but that coincided with a buildup in refined
product inventories. Refineries have likely cut processing this month.

Trump admin rolls back methane
regulations. The EPA announced a roll
back of methane regulations on oil and gas operations. Smaller drillers favored
the removal of regulation, but the oil majors opposed the move. The majors have
bet big on natural gas as a source of growth in a low-carbon world, and fear
the reputational stain on gas from increased methane emissions.

France sends navy to Eastern
Mediterranean. France sent naval
forces to the Eastern Mediterranean to provide military assistance to Greece
and to deter Turkey from oil and gas exploration in contested areas around
Cyprus. “The situation in the Eastern Mediterranean is alarming. Turkey’s
unilateral decisions in matters of oil exploration provoke tensions,” French
President Emmanuel Macron tweeted.

Mountain Valley Pipeline sees NC permit
rejected. North Carolina regulators denied
a key water permit for the Mountain Valley Pipeline, one of the few
remaining high-profile long-distance natural gas pipelines under construction.
The pipeline would carry Marcellus shale gas to the southeast. MVP is a joint
venture between developer EQM Midstream and the subsidiaries of several
utilities including NextEra Energy (NYSE: NEE) and Consolidated
Edison (NYSE: ED).

BP considering remote work. BP (NYSE: BP) is considering a “radical
reconfiguring of its offices,” including letting leases expire on office space
and shifting nearly 50,000 employees to remote working, The Guardian reports.

Decline in U.S. flaring. In 2019, global gas flaring hit its highest level in a decade, with much
of the increase coming from U.S. shale. However, in the past 12 months, gas
flaring in the U.S. has declined by 70 percent, according to the Earth
Observation Group at the Payne Institute for Public Policy. The decline was
largely driven by a slowdown in drilling. Capital discipline presents a hopeful
scenario in which a consolidated industry can get a handle on the flaring
crisis, the FT reports.

Brookfield to buy stake in Cheniere. Brookfield Asset Management Inc.’s (NYSE: BAM) infrastructure
arm is in talks to acquire Blackstone Group Inc.’s (NYSE: BX)minority
stake in liquefied natural gas terminal operator Cheniere
Energy Partners LP (NYSEAMERICAN: CQP), according to Bloomberg.

Shell eyes stake in $9B Indian
petrochemical project. Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE: RDS.A) is eyeing a 50
percent stake in a $9 billion petrochemical project in India.

Venezuela’s oil production could fall to
zero. Venezuela’s oil exports are suffering
another blow these days: the quality of the crude loaded on tankers is so
poor that loadings are being delayed. IHS Markit said that Venezuela could soon
be producing “close to zero barrels of oil.” Currently, production has fallen
to about 100,000 to 200,000 bpd, down from 650,000 bpd a year ago. Related: Iran Seizes Oil Tanker In Strait Of Hormuz

U.S. offshore wind to see “explosive
growth.” The U.S. could have as much as 25 gigawatts (GW)
of offshore wind built by 2030, according to Wood Mackenzie.

Exxon Payara project in Guyana on
hold. ExxonMobil’s (NYSE: XOM) Payara-Pacora
joint development project in offshore Guyana has been put on hold until
the new administration of President Mohamed Irfaan Ali conducts a thorough review
of the project.

Aramco to make spending cuts. Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL: 2222) could cut spending,
lowering its planned capex to $20 to $25 billion this year from previous
guidance of $25 to $30 billion.

Hi-Crush gave out millions to executives
right before bankruptcy. Frac sand
supplier Hi-Crush (OTCMKTS: HCRSQ) handed out $3 million
in executive compensation to four executives five days before declaring
bankruptcy, according to Reuters.

Credit:

The post Oil
Prices Fall Back After A Brief Rally first appeared in Oilprice.com on August 14, 2020.