Mega pre-election survey indicates even UK PM Rishi Sunak’s seat at risk

A new so-called mega poll released by a civil society campaign organisation indicates that the governing Conservative Party is in for a major drubbing in the general election expected later this year, with even British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s seat in North Yorkshire hanging in the balance. The 15,029-person MRP poll conducted by Survation on behalf of Best for Britain puts the Opposition Labour Party on 45 per cent of the vote share with a 19-point lead over the Conservatives, up three points from the group’s previous poll at the end of last year. ‘The Sunday Times’ analysis of the major seat-by-seat survey claims Tory prospects have hit a record low, which means they are on track for their worst election result, winning fewer than 100 seats. Labour could win 468, giving Opposition leader Sir Keir Starmer’s party a whopping 286-seat majority.

“Our MRP forecast shows that, if the election were held tomorrow, Sunak’s Conservatives would lose 250 MPs across the country and the Labour Party would win with 468 seats. This would be the worst ever result for the Conservatives at a General Election,” claims the Best for Britain analysis.

“The extent of the damage to the Conservative Party doesn’t stop there either. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s seat of Richmond and Northallerton becomes a hyper-marginal, with the Labour Party just 2.4 per cent behind him. The same is true in Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s new seat of Godalming and Ash in which the Liberal Democrats trail by just 1 per cent,” it adds.

The analysis claims that of the estimated 28 sitting Cabinet members expected to contest the polls, only 13 of them would be re-elected should they decide to stand again. While undecided voters were not accounted for in the survey, they represented about 15 per cent of those asked and the Tories will be pinning their hopes on winning them over when the country finally goes to the polls.

Lord David Frost, the former Brexit secretary and a vocal critic of Sunak, told ‘The Sunday Times’ that these latest survey figures showed the “desperate situation” the Conservative Party was facing.

“The polling is getting worse over time, not better,” he said. Sunak’s aides fear he could face a leadership challenge after the local elections if, as predicted, the Tories face humiliating defeats in the May 2 local council and mayoral polls. It will revive talk of rebellion in his party ranks, which have never fully quietened down with Tory MPs fearful of losing their seats when the general election comes. “If Sunak tried to call an election, I think there would be a real risk of an unedifying situation when a serious attempt would have been made to remove the PM before the final dissolution of Parliament,” one Tory MP told the newspaper.

“There were certainly several MPs who said they would have immediately put letters in to force a confidence vote,” the MP said.

A total of 53 MPs would need to sign letters of no-confidence for the party’s powerful backbench 1922 Committee to force such a vote of no-confidence in Sunak. Rebels claim they are in the mid-20s now, with at least another 10 expected to join the ranks in the coming weeks.

The repeal of the Fixed-term Parliaments Act in 2022 restored the ability of British prime ministers to set election dates. However, by law a general election has to take place at least every five years, making January 2025 the outermost deadline for Sunak to go to the ballot box. He has repeatedly indicated that he intends to call a general election in the second half of 2024, with October-November being touted as the possible timeline.