Lichtman, whose track record has garnered him significant attention in the political world, maintains that any unexpected event in the final weeks before an election is unlikely to alter the outcome.
His predictions for the upcoming 2024 US election have already been made, with Vice President Kamala Harris as his forecasted winner over former President Donald Trump, as mentioned in a USA Today report.
Lichtman’s 13 Keys to US Election Prediction
Lichtman’s election predictions are based on a unique model known as the “13 Keys,” a system of thirteen true-false questions that evaluate the performance and strength of the incumbent White House party.
These questions focus on governance and long-term factors rather than campaign events or last-minute developments.
Also Read: The Apprentice: Where to watch Donald Trump’s movie on streaming? According to Lichtman, it’s these fundamental aspects, not the ups and downs of polling or sudden surprises, that ultimately decide the outcome of presidential elections.In a recent interview, Lichtman stated, “I don’t change my prediction in response to the polls. If I did, I would have been wrong about 2016 and 2020”, as quoted in a USA Today report.
He emphasized that his system, which he uses to predict US election outcomes, considers the “governing forces” that shape voter decisions. This approach has proved highly reliable, with only one incorrect prediction in the last 40 years.
October Surprise: A Political Myth?
The term “October surprise” refers to an unexpected event that emerges late in the campaign, believed to sway the election in favor of one candidate or the other.
However, Lichtman dismisses this as a myth. He explained that his predictions are never influenced by such late developments, and he has always made his calls well in advance of Election Day.
“The idea of an October surprise is a huge myth,” Lichtman said. “I’ve always made my predictions before then and never change them”, as quoted in areport by USA Today.
What Are the 13 Keys?
Lichtman’s 13 Keys system looks at several factors, ranging from economic indicators to political charisma.
For example, it examines whether the White House party gained seats during the midterm elections, if the incumbent president is running for re-election, and if there has been a significant failure or success in foreign policy.
Other keys focus on issues like economic growth, social unrest, and whether the incumbent or challenger is viewed as charismatic.
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Among these, the historian pointed out that eight of the keys currently favor Vice President Harris, while three favor Donald Trump. Some of the keys in Harris’s favor include the White House party avoiding a primary contest and the lack of a major third-party challenger. Trump, on the other hand, benefits from factors like economic challenges under the current administration.
As the 2024 US election approaches, polls show a close race between Harris and Trump, but Lichtman stands firm in his prediction.
FAQs
Who is leading the US Polls?
As per recent report Donald Trump has gained support on swing states as compared to Kamala Harris.
Will there be another debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris?
No, the former President has refused to participate again in a debate with Harris.
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